AUD sold on approaches towards 94 US Cents

Australian Dollar:

Interest in the Australian dollar diminished late last week where it appeared investors were reluctant to pick up the higher yielding asset at levels anywhere close to the 94 US Cents mark. Having reached a late overnight high of 0.9377 when valued against its US Counterpart on Friday continued tensions in the Ukraine as well as signs of cooling inflation within China have done little to help improve broader risk sentiment. With figures showing consumer inflation moderated to an 18-month low of 1.8 percent from a year earlier in April the focus will remain on the world’s second largest economy leading into tomorrow’s expected release of the Industrial Production figure. Opening this morning in a slightly weaker position the Australian dollar currently buys 93.55 US Cents

• We expect a range today of 0.9320 -0.9390

New Zealand Dollar:

Having traded as high as 0.8778 when valued against its US Counterpart earlier in the week the New Zealand dollar reached its lowest point in over 5 days on Friday bottoming out at a rate of 0.8603. With a strengthening US dollar being the major theme on Friday optimism surrounding the US economy continues to blossom on the expectation it will grow by around 3 percent over the coming 12 months. Opening under pressure this morning, 0.3 percent lower the New Zealand dollar currently swaps hands at a rate of 0.8616. Looking ahead this week the highlight of the economic calendar comes in the form of RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report scheduled for release on Wednesday.

• We expect a range today of 0.8580 – 0.8650

Great British Pound:

During a session which bolstered the optimism surrounding projected growth levels across the British economy figures on Friday showed factory output grew at its fastest pace for a calendar quarter in almost 15 years. Whilst figures showed manufacturing production rose by 0.5 percent during the month of April the positive number was not enough to spur significant interest in the Great British Pound which got out-paced by a stronger US dollar. Having traded between a low of 1.6830 and a high of 1.6937 the Sterling is weaker by comparison this morning at a rate of 1.6844. Broadly lower the Great British Pound has also lost ground against both the Aussie (1.7995) and the Kiwi (1.9545).

• We expect a range today of 1.7960 – 1.8030

Majors:

The 17-nation Euro continued to be sold in an aggressive manner late last week with the fallout from Thursday’s ECB Monetary Policy Statement still acting as a catalyst for the broader move lower.  Whilst ECB President Mario Draghi has made a pre-commitment for further easing in June, addition stimulus outside of a standalone rate cut may be required to satisfy investors who view the lack of inflation as a key risk to an already fragile economic framework. Trading down from an earlier high of 1.3843 the Euro is notably lower this morning at 1.3755 when valued against its US Counterpart. In other moves on Friday the Greenback notched up some impressive across the board gains with a generally cautious tone instilling across financial markets off the back of ongoing tensions throughout the Ukraine as well poor economic signals from China. Stronger against the Yen the Greenback currently trades at a rate of 101.861.

Data releases

• AUD: NAB Business Confidence
• NZD: No data today
• JPY: Current Account  
• GBP: No data today
• EUR: No data today
• USD: FOMC Member Plosser Speaks, Federal Budget Balance

Published On Mon, May 12 2014, 01:08 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/daily-forex-analysis/2014/05/12/ 

AUD/USD – Eases Away from Resistance at 0.94

The Australian dollar did well to finish out last week in moving through the resistance level at 0.93 and maintaining the break.  Prior to the break through, over the last couple of weeks or so the Australian dollar had fallen back down below the 0.93 level and settled within a very narrow range just below the level before surging back up.  This break has provided some hope that it may resume its up trend that it has experienced over the last few months. Since the recent surge higher it has slowly and steadily eased lower and looks poised to retest the 0.93 level again.  It was placing ongoing upwards pressure on the resistance at 0.93 before breaking higher. This level had been providing reasonable resistance over the last week or so denying any movement higher and is likely to play a role again should the AUD/USD retreat lower.
The last month or so has seen the Australian dollar drift lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before falling lower. During this similar period the 0.93 level has become very significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time.   The Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this year. For the best part of February and March the Australian dollar did very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level, although at the beginning of March it crept a little lower down to a three week low below 0.89. Towards the end of March however, the Australian dollar surged higher strongly moving to the resistance level at 0.93 before consolidating for a week or so.
For several months either side of the New Year the Australian dollar established and traded within a narrow range roughly between 0.88 and the previous resistance level at 0.90. Back in January the Australian dollar was able to rally higher pushing through the resistance at 0.90 to a one month high near 0.91, however it quickly returned to more familiar territory below the resistance levels at 0.90 and 0.88. After showing some resilience in early December moving to a one week high above 0.9150, the AUD/USD spent the next two weeks turning around sharply and falling heavily down to a then three month low close to 0.88.
Australia's unemployment rate held steady at 5.8 per cent last week, with the estimated addition of 14,200 jobs. The result defied economist expectations of a small tick up in unemployment to 5.9 per cent, with most having expected a payback after a large decline in the jobless rate last month. However, the Bureau of Statistics figures estimate that 14,200 full-time jobs were created last month, with no part-time jobs lost, leaving unemployment steady at 5.8 per cent, seasonally adjusted. The more stable trend figures, which smooth out volatility, also had unemployment steady but at 5.9 per cent. The participation rate - which measures the proportion of over 15-year-olds in work or looking for it - eased slightly from 64.8 to 64.7 per cent, seasonally adjusted.
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD/USD May 11 at 23:30 GMT 0.9364 H: 0.9376 L: 0.9363
AUD/USD Technical

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the AUD/USD is continuing to settle around the 0.9360 level. The Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents and it has done very well to recover slightly to well above 0.90 again. Current range: trading around 0.9360.
Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.9220 and 0.9100.
• Above: 0.9380 and 0.9400.

Published On Mon, May 12 2014, 00:27 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/technical-analysis-forex/2014/05/12/ 

Daily Forex Chart Art – May 12, 2014

EUR/USD: Daily

Here’s an update on the daily forex price action of EUR/USD! In case you missed it, the pair already made a downside break from the bottom of the rising wedge. This indicates that further losses could be in the cards for this pair, with stochastic moving down from the overbought zone and reflecting strong selling pressure. Take note that the chart pattern is roughly 900 pips tall, which suggests that the resulting selloff could be of the same height.

Published On Mon, May 12 2014, 01:42 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/pippin-aint-easy/2014/05/12/ 

Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/JPY : May 12, 2014

WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11 May 2014     23:14GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
101.78

55 HR EMA
101.76

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
62

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall

Resistance
102.79 - Apr 29 high
102.19 - Last Tue's high (AUS)
102.01 - Last Wed's high

Support
101.32 - Apr low (10th)
100.76 - Feb 04 Low
100.00 - Psychological sup


. USD/JPY - 101.86.. The pair continued previous week's decline fm a 3-week high of 103.02 to 101.43 last Wed, cross-unwinding in yen lifted dlr to 102.01, price then traded sideways on Thu & Fri as market focus was on other dlr majors.

. Looking at the daily picture, although dlr's rebound fm 101.43 to 102.01 signals the early decline fm 103.02 (last Fri's high) has formed a temporary low there, however, aforesaid fall to 101.43 confirms recent erratic rise fm 101.32 (Apr low) has ended n consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness, a daily close below 101.32 wud be the 1st indication decline fm 2014 5-year peak at 105.45 has possibly resumed n yield re-test of 100.76 (reaction low in Feb), break wud confirm this view n extend weakness to 99.60 (being 50% r of intermediate rise fm 93.75-105.45). On the upside, only a daily close abv 103.02 wud risk stronger gain twd pivotal res at 103.77 later this month.

. Today, dlr's close at Fri's high at 101.86 suggests initial choppy trading with near term upside bias remains, abv 102.01 is needed to bring stronger correction of said decline fm 103.02, reckon 102.23 (50% r) wud hold n yield another fall. So selling on intra-day recovery is the way to go. 

Published On Mon, May 12 2014, 01:47 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/forex-market-outlook-on-minorscrosses/2014/05/12/ 

Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD: May 9, 2014

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 09 May 2014       00:04GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences

21 HR EMA
1.3872

55 HR EMA
1.3893

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down

Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI
26

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
1.3952 - Tue's high
1.3905 - Y'day's Asian low (now res)
1.3890 - Mon's high (NZ)

Support
1.3812 - Last Fri's low
1.3771 - Last Wed's low
1.3736 - 50% r of 1.3477-1.3995


. EUR/USD - 1.3840.. Although euro briefly penetrated Mar's 1.3967 high to a fresh 2-year peak of 1.3995 (EBS) Thu after ECB kept rates unchanged, as usual , ECB President Draghi's comments that a rate cut is possible in Jun plus his concern on euro's strength at the press conference sent euro tanking to 1.3833.

. Looking at the daily picture, despite euro aforesaid rise to 1.3995, subsequent near term reversal fm there confirms MT uptrend has indeed formed a temporary top there as this lvl was accompanied by prominent 'bearish divergences' on the hourly & daily oscillators. Current price action suggests euro is at least correcting the intermediate rise fm 1.3672 (Apr low) or the up move fm 1.3477 (Feb), a 'minimum' 38.2% r of the latter move wud pressure the single currency to 1.3797 n then 1.3736 (50% r) later next week. Therefore, selling euro on recovery in anticipation of such move is recommended n only abv a daily close abv 1.3952 wud dampen present bearish scenario on euro.

. Today, euro has remained under pressure at Asian open, however, as hourly indicators' readings are in o/sold territory, further steep fall is unlikely to be seen in Asia n reckon 1.6812 n bring recovery b4 another decline.

AUD/USD pressured to the downside post key events Fri, May 09 2014, 01:42 GMT | FXStreet

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is trading at 0.9359, down -0.17% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9378 and low at 0.9347.

AUD/USD is being pressured to the downside with the China CPI’s and PPI’s missing expectations. Also, the RBA released their quarterly statement and explained that rates are going to be appropriate for the current outlook and the underlying inflation seen at 2.75 mid 2014, 2.5% end of year, 2-3%.

AUD/USD Levels

Current price is 0.9360, with resistance ahead at 0.9363 (Daily Classic PP), 0.9370 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.9375 (Daily Open), 0.9375 (Weekly High) and 0.9378 (Daily High). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.9347 (Daily Low), 0.9330 (Weekly Classic R1), 0.9329 (Daily Classic S1), 0.9326 (Hourly 100 SMA) and 0.9318 (Yesterday's Low).

AUD/USD chart formations

Looking at price patterns, we can see a Doji 4-hour candlestick formation.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=76cd5ea7-5ff2-401f-b728-7252615e1dc1

Emas Masih Alami Aksi Jual - Inilah.com

Emas Masih Alami Aksi Jual - Inilah.com
Oleh: Wahid Ma'ruf

ekonomi - Jumat, 9 Mei 2014 | 06:21 WIB

INILAHCOM, New York - Harga emas berjangka lebih rendah pada Jumat (9/5/2014) dini 
hari tadi. Logam mulia ini melanjutkan pelemahan sebelumnya merespon pernyataan Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB).

Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa, Mario Draghi bahwa bank dapat bertindak untuk membendung penurunan inflasi pada pertemuan bulan Juni untk menopang euro. Emas berjangka untuk pengiriman Juni terpangkas US$1,2 menjadi US$1.287,7 per troy ons. Untuk emas di pasar spot mendatar di US$1.289 per ons.

Harga perak naik 0,2% ke US$19,18 per ons. Harga paladium naik 0,1% ke US$1.433,2 per ons. Demikian mengutip cnbc.com.

Banyak investor memperkirakan akan terjadi revisi menurun terhadap target inflasi dari ECB. Hal ini bisa membuka peluang untuk menambah stimulus seperti menurunkan suku bunga acuan.

Sementara separatis pro-Rusia di Ukraina mengabaikan harapan dunia untuk menunju perundingan damai. "Jika konflik ini mereda dan ekonomi AS tetap positif harus menjadi hal positif untuk saham dan negatif untuk emas. Sebab investor masuk lagi ke pasar berisiko," kata Peter Fertig analis Quantitative Commodity Research.

Meskipun harga melemah tetapi minat beli dari China di Shanghai Gold Exchange relatif berkurang. Jadi pelemahan harga masih gagal menarik minat pembelian.

AUD di atas angin

Oleh Dina Farisah - Jumat, 09 Mei 2014 | 06:19 WIB

JAKARTA. Dollar Australia naik ke level tertinggi dalam dua minggu setelah data lapangan pekerjaan Australia membaik. Mata uang Negeri kanguru ini juga tertolong rilis data neraca perdagangan China yang positif.
Hingga Kamis (8/5) sampai pukul 16.50 WIB, pasangan EUR/AUD turun 0,39% ke 1,4856 dibanding sehari sebelumnya. Sementara, pasangan AUD/USD naik 0,63% ke 0,9386. Adapun, pairing AUD/JPY naik 0,55% ke level 95,5670.
Aussie menguat setelah Biro Statistik Australia melaporkan penambahan tenaga kerja sebanyak 14.200 pekerja di bulan April 2014. Angka ini lebih tinggi dari proyeksi sebanyak 8.800 pekerja. Tingkat pengangguran Australia tercatat 5,8%, lebih bagus dari perkiraan 5,9%.  Data tenaga kerja Australia itu menunjukkan ekonomi negeri tersebut dalam tahap pemulihan.
Desmond Chua, analis CMC Market di Singapura seperti dikutip Bloomberg menambahkan, neraca perdagangan China yang membaik juga membawa angin segar bagi dollar Australia.  Maklum, China merupakan mitra dagang terbesar Australia
China mencetak pertumbuhan ekspor sebesar 0,9% pada April 2014. Angka ini lebih tinggi dibanding ekspektasi sebesar minus 1,7%. Di periode sama, China juga membukukan pertumbuhan impor 0,8%, melampaui ekspektasi minus 2,3%. Tak ayal, neraca perdagangan China pun surplus US$ 18,46 miliar.
Zulfirman Basir, Senior Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures bilang, pasangan EUR/AUD menurun lantaran data ekonomi Australia yang positif. Sementara, dari Eropa, pasar masih menanti  komentar Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB), Mario Draghi atas rencana pelonggaran moneter.
Jika ECB melanjutkan rencana tersebut maka euro akan melemah, Sebaliknya, apabila Draghi tidak menyinggung pelonggaran moneter, maka EUR/AUD bisa menguat.
Suluh Adil Wicaksono, analis Millenium Penata Futures mengatakan, pasangan AUD/USD cenderung bullish. Ini didukung pernyataan Gubernur The Fed, Janet Yellen  bahwa AS masih membutuhkan stimulus untuk menyokong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ini membawa sentimen negatif pada dollar AS.
Ke depan, pelaku pasar masih menantikan testimoni lanjutan Yellen. Tapi pelaku pasar berspekulasi AS masih memang masih membutuhkan stimulus. “Pasangan AUD/USD masih menguat hingga Jumat,” proyeksi Suluh.

Editor: Avanty Nurdiana

 

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/aud-di-atas-angin 

Putin dan Yellen Bawa Wall Street Positif - INILAH.com

Putin dan Yellen Bawa Wall Street Positif - INILAH.com

INILAHCOM, New York - Wall Street mampu berakhir di area positif pada Kamis (8/5/20140 dini hari tadi. Investor merespon pernyataan Janet Yellen dan kesediaan Presiden Rusia untuk berunding soal Ukraina.

Indeks Dow Jones naik 0,7% ke 16.518,54 dengan penopang saham UnitedHealth Group. Untuk indeks S&P nnaik 0,6% ke 1.878,21 dengan saham sektor utilitas dan sektor keuangan. Sementara indeks Nasdaq kehilangan 0,3% ke 4.067,67. Demikian mengutip cnbc.com.

Penguatan seiring dengan pernyataan Gubernur The Fed, Janet Yellen yang tetap mencermati pasar perumahan dalam menetapkan suku bunga acuan. Namun dengan pertemuan dua hari pada pekan ini, Yellen menaha diri untuk menetapkan kenaikan suku bunga tersebut.

Sentimen positif lainnya adalah Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin mengisyaratkan untuk bersedia membahas krisis politik di Ukraina. Putin membuka pintu untuk berdialog dengan para pemimpin Uni Eropa pada Rabu kemarin.

Rusia bersedia membahas jalan keluar untuk Ukrainadengan Kepala Organisasi Keamanan dan Keja Sama Uni Eropa. "Kami memiliki perubahan dengan kesediaan Putin membahas jalan keluar dari krisis. Ini ternyata memiliki pengaruh besar di pasar karena ada secercah harapan," kata Art Hogan, kepala strategi pasar di Wunderlich Securities.

Data tentang produktivitas AS turun 1,7% pada kuartal pertama. Ini sebagai penurunan terbesar sejak kuartal pertama 2013. Pemicunya karena naiknya biaya tenaga kerja. Dolar AS naik sehingga memicu kenaikan imbal hasil Treasury untuk tenor 10 tahun di 2,594 persen.

Minyak mentah AS naik 1,3 persen untuk pengiriman bulan Juni ke US$100,77 per barel. Harga emas berjangka untuk pengiriman Juni turun 1,5 persen ke US$1.288,90 per troy ons.