JP Morgan kept its USD/JPY forecasts at 102 as of end-Q3 and 105 as of end-Q4.
"The
USD is likely to remain range-bound unless we see significant surprises
from the US economic data and /or Fed commentary. Given this backdrop,
JPY’s trend will likely become the more important determinant for
USD/JPY ahead. The developments in the past month are generally
supportive for our mid-term JPY-bearishness," JPM outlines its m/t bias
on the pair.The upside risk to this view, according to JPM, could probably take USD/JPY towards 110 and EUR/JPY towards 140 by end-Q3 if one or more of these 3 scenarios materialize:
(1) US figures (job data in particular) strong enough to boost speculation on early hikes, (2) Japanese government announces more aggressive growth strategy than the market expects, (3) Chinese economic growth accelerates sharply into 2H
In the mean time, the downside risk to this view, according to JPM, could probably take USD/JPY back to 90 and EUR/JPY to 120 by end-Q3 if one or more of these 3 scenarios materialize:
(1) US economy slows down significantly, (2) Chinese recovery fails to accelerate into 2H, (3) US debt/fiscal discussion turns messy.
JPM also lists the following as potential trigger events in Q3:
- FOMC meetings (Jul 31, Sep 18) - BoJ meetings (Aug 8, Sep 5) - MoF’s weekly portfolio flow data (every Thursday).
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